EdVANTAGE Blog

Tuesday’s election results are being interpreted as evidence of a “tax revolt” and possible Republican resurgence in New York State.

But an under-analyzed aspect of the election is that Democratic losses in many regions resulted from a steep fall-off in their voter turnout, not a surge in GOP votes.

Gannett News writes,

“Voters on Tuesday picked Republican challengers in many county races across the state, a sign of widespread displeasure with high taxes in the suburbs and an anti-incumbent backlash, political leaders and experts said.”

…The Democrats’ losses were profound in the Hudson Valley and on Long Island, two of the most highly taxed places in the country. Republicans won the county executive seat in Westchester County and control of the legislatures in Dutchess, Ulster and Nassau counties.

Republicans also made gains in Erie and Monroe Counties.

Further, Nassau County Executive Executive Tom Suozzi, a Democrat, faced an unexpectedly strong challenge and may yet lose in his re-election bid.  After election night, he led by only 237 votes, with over 10,000 absentee and other paper ballots to be counted.

Republican candidates were not universally successful, however.

Democrats won the race drawing the most national attention of all thosein New York, a special election to fill the vacant Congressional seat covering the northern tier of the state.  Democrat Bill Owens defeated Conservative Douglas Hoffman after Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out and endorsed Owens.  Republicans had held the seat for more than a century.

Also, running as a Republican/Independent, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg won a third term, but his victory margin (51%-46%) was about one-third of what pre-election polls suggested it could be.

Democratic political consultant Bruce Gyory told Gannett, “This wasn’t a partisan wave. This was a non-partisan, anti-incumbent riptide that hit everywhere.”

Several commentators are interpreting the results as a long awaited voter uprising against property taxes.  New York Times columnist Peter Applebome, wrote, “If ever an Election Day had a clear theme in the cities and suburbs outside New York it was this one: property taxes.”

He added,

Contemplating the election landscape and the region’s high property tax burden a month ago, Richard Nathan, who was retiring as co-director of the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York at Albany mused: “When is this dog going to bark? And the numbers make you think it’s going to be soon.”

Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi said, “If I lose this race, it should wake people up to the reality that Albany should change the way it addresses property taxes. We have to do something about the school taxes, and if I have to be defeated in order for that to happen, then at least . . . people will recognize that something has to be done.”

One of my clearest remaining memories from graduate school is a professor’s observation that, “Reality is what goes on between our ears.”

Whatever the reality behind Tuesday’s election outcomes, a hardening perception that Democrats are at risk and that a property tax revolt is gathering steam will alter legislative decision-making dynamics.  Over the near-term, it might raise resistance to mid-year School Aid cuts.  Over the longer-term, it could result in more action on property tax relief, for good or ill.

There is another way to examine the election outcomes, however — ask what caused the sharp fall-off in Democratic votes in several regions?  For example, the shift in Democratic fortunes in the two downstate county executive races did not result from a surge in Republican votes.

In Nassau, Democrat Suozzi saw his vote total drop by 35 percent, while the defeated Democratic incumbent in Westchester saw his turnout fall even more — by 39 percent.  Monroe County Democrats also reported disappointment with turnout.

Why did Democratic voters stay home?  Did candidates they supported in the past fail to campaign on themes that resonate with their concerns?  Is support for education one of those themes?