EdVANTAGE Blog

All across New York State today, school districts are asking voters for approval of proposed operating budgets for the coming school year.

Governor Paterson predicts that people will be surprised at how many school budgets will be rejected by voters today.

He also seemed to suggest that schools are trying to “spend money you don’t have” and avoiding tough choices.

So much for the more constructive approach he seemed to be taking toward schools with his advance warning of a possible state aid delay June, this one to be implemented by amending state law, rather than ignoring it, as he did with prior delays.  There will be no action by the Legislature on that proposal this week.

Erie 1 BOCES Superintendent Don Ogilvie and I explained to the Buffalo News the choices and pressures school leaders have wrestled with in putting together proposed budgets.

The Governor’s comments came in response to a question on what might ignite a resolution of the state budget.  We offered similar speculation in the latest Councilgram, but did not predict school budget outcomes.

What will happen when votes are counted this evening?  Historically, who doesn’t vote has often mattered more than who does.

Here is a chart comparing budget passage rates, and total votes statewide for and against school budgets going back to 2003.  That was the first year the State Education Department began compiling yes and no vote counts by district.

In 2003, 94 percent of budgets passed (a record up to that point), with 589,000 New Yorkers voting “yes,” and 370,000 voting “no.”

In 2004, the passage rate dipped by almost 9 percentage points.  No votes remained roughly stable, but yes votes dropped by 95,000.

An exception to the rule of who doesn’t vote mattering more than who does occurred in 2005.  That year yes votes rebounded, increasing by 56,000 over 2005.  But no votes surged by 62,000 (16 percent) and the passage rate dipped by another two points, to 83 percent.

Last year schools achieved a record approval rate of 97.3 percent.  There was a slight climb in yes votes (3 percent), but the main factor in the ascending approval rate was a 17 percent drop in no votes, presumably resulting in large part from districts proposing the lowest average tax increase in seven years.

What might happen today?  It is easy to predict a lower yes turnout, partly because with widespread cuts and layoffs, traditional school supporters may see less reason to vote for school budgets this year.

More no votes are easy to predict as well — economic worries persist, school budget votes provide an outlet for “tea party” activists, and some people will vote against budgets to protest proposed cuts.

Accompanying the statewide chart are tables with corresponding data by region.  The drop-off in turnout, yes and no, in some upstate regions is stunning.

Over the weekend, the Auburn Citizen published a carefully done explanation of some of the complexities of the contingency budget cap — something we hope not many districts will have to contemplate, Governor Paterson’s prediction notwithstanding.