EdVANTAGE Blog

Tuesday’s election results are being interpreted as evidence of a “tax revolt” and possible Republican resurgence in New York State.

But an under-analyzed aspect of the election is that Democratic losses in many regions resulted from a steep fall-off in their voter turnout, not a surge in GOP votes. Read the rest of this entry »

Late last week, we received phone calls from superintendents across the state seeking advice on how to handle calls from parents about the Obama Administration’s plans to offer a webcast speech tomorrow (Tuesday, September 8th) by the President to schoolchildren.  Some parents threatened to keep their children out of school if the speech is to be shown.

As the administration promised, the text of the speech was posted on the White House website a day early.  You can read it here.

More on on the speech and the controversy… Read the rest of this entry »

Over the weekend New York State United Teachers decided to endorse U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s candidacy to win election to fill out the remaining two years in Hillary Clinton’s term.

The New York Daily News reported that, “The union will formally announce today what its president, Dick Iannuzzi, called an ‘unquestionably unusual’ endorsement of Gillibrand that is coming ‘unquestionably early in the process.’” Read the rest of this entry »

After its leadership upheaval on Monday, the State Senate failed to convene on Tuesday or Wednesday and cancelled all committee meetings both days.

Today, a brief session was held involving only the 30 Republican Senators and the two dissident Democrats.  But it lasted only 10 minutes and no bills were passed.

Now both houses have left Albany for the weekend and are scheduled to reconvene on Monday. Read the rest of this entry »

Republicans have reclaimed control of the State Senate as two New York City Democrats joined with the 30 Republicans to vote to change the leadership of that house in a stunning mid-afternoon turn of events yesterday. Read the rest of this entry »

The property tax report cards filed by school districts last month show tax increases in proposed budgets averaging 2.1 percent, down from 3.7 percent a year ago.*  This decline has led some observers to predict another good year for school budget votes.

I’m not so sure.

With elections, I choose to be an “eternal pessimist.”  The outlook has its benefits — I am seldom disappointed and often pleasantly surprised.

So, even though school budgets have passed at rates averaging close to 90 percent over the past six years, I worry about the outcome even under promising circumstances.  But I do see more reasons than usual for concern this year, even with the decline in proposed tax increases.

More than most elections, school votes are influenced by turnout, and statewide turnout in school elections has dropped every year since 2003, the year that the State Education Department first began reporting actual vote counts by districts.

Total turnout has declined by 19 percent since 2003.  “Yes” votes have fallen more than “no” votes — 22 percent versus 14 percent.  But high budget passage rates have continued because the drop in yes votes started from a higher base.  Sixty-two percent of school voters supported their district budgets in 2003; 59 percent did so last May.

In 2007, school budgets achieved a record passage rate of 95.3 percent (The State Education Department has published results going back as far as 1969).  That outcome was not the result of a surge of favorable votes, however.  The yes turnout dropped by roughly 66,000 votes, but no votes declined by roughly 100,000 (24 percent) from the year before.

Nearly all the drop in no votes on school budgets over the past six years occurred in just that one year — 2007.  That was the year the Foundation Aid formula was enacted, along with a record $1.76 billion overall School Aid increase.  The sense was that the big state aid increase helped moderate local tax increases and that gave skeptical voters fewer reasons to show up and vote against their school budgets.

This year’s drop in proposed tax increases might be expected to depress the participation of hostile voters again.  But the general political and economic atmosphere is negative in many ways now.  Surveys reveal voter worries about their own economic prospects and and disapproval of many elected officials.

School budget elections are one immediate outlet for voters to vent their general frustrations.

Last year, 92 percent of school budgets passed.  But a shift in turnout could could drop the pass rate by 10 or 20 percentage points.

If the turnout of yes voters remains at 2008 levels, but no votes rise back up to 2006 levels, the pass rate would drop to 73 percent.  That would require an unprecedented 30 percent surge in no votes.  A 16 percent jump in no votes — as happened in 2005 — would result in a pass rate around 85 percent.

Both scenarios assume no change in the number of yes votes compared to May 2008.  Any fall-off would result in still lower passage rates.

Watching the steady erosion of yes votes, especially upstate, I have worried what would happen if events ever caused a surge in hostile voters.  Pro-school budget forces in some regions may be out of practice in turning out heir supporters.  Also, in this cycle they are more on their own in whatever efforts they do make.

It appears that the teachers union, New York State United Teachers, will not run its usual pro-budget TV and radio ads.  In some districts, local unions are opposing school budgets because of planned layoffs.

Again, when it comes to elections, I’ve been the eternal pessimist over the years and have been pleasantly surprised by the voters’ judgments more often than I’ve been disappointed.

Let’s hope that is the case again next Tuesday.

*The average increase in local tax levies in proposed school budgets for 2009-10 is 2.1 percent, if the figure is calculated by summing budgeted and proposed tax levies for all districts and computing the percentage change between the two annual totals.

Some reports have placed the average at 1.9 percent.  That figure is the result if the percentage changes in tax levy proposed by all districts are averaged together.

The first method gives more weight to districts with larger budgets and tax levies; the second method weights all districts the same regardless of size.

Today the State Board of Regents elected Dr. Merryl H. Tisch to serve as Chancellor. The Chancellor acts as chair of the Regents.

She will be the first woman to lead the Regents in the 225-year history of the Board.

Chancellor-Elect Tisch issued a statement outlining her priorities:

As Chancellor, I will insist that we continue to raise standards for all of our children and hold every school district accountable for their results, while providing the support necessary to get that done.

We will reform and expand our data system to make it easier to use, faster, and more complete, extending from pre-kindergarten through college.

We will embrace innovation with a data-driven approach that seeks to constantly identify and advance policies and best practices to raise test scores, raise graduation rates, and finally close the achievement gap…

We will continue to find new ways to recruit the best and brightest into teaching and keep them there with an openness to alternate routes to certification and experiments to reward excellence.

We will find new ways to increase the number of excellent teachers working in schools with students who need extra help, including black and Latino students, English Language Learners and students with disabilities.

And we will move forward with the effort begun by Chancellor Bennett, the Board of Regents, and Commissioner Mills to redesign the State Education Department so that we can better support local innovation in our highest performing districts and engage more deeply with districts that are struggling and in need of additional support.

Our first order of business will be the completion of a timely and orderly search, both wide and exhaustive, for a successor to our Commissioner, Richard Mills, who will retire in June after leading change in the State for fourteen years.

Dr. Tisch is a resident of Manhattan and has served as a Regent for 13 years, including the last two as Vice Chancellor. She previously was Co-Chair of the Regents Committee on Elementary, Middle, Secondary, and Continuing Education and Chair of the Committee on Vocational and Educational Services for Individuals with Disabilities.

She was also a member of the Governor’s Commission on Property Tax Relief but abstained from the Commission’s recommendations.

In addition to her role as a Regent, Dr. Tisch serves as chairperson of the Metropolitan Council on Jewish Poverty. She was once a first grade teacher in a New York City nonpublic school.

As Chancellor, Dr. Tisch will succeed Robert Bennett of Buffalo, who was the 2007 winner of the “Friend of the Council” award.  He will remain on the Board.

To succeed Dr. Tisch as Vice Chancellor, the Regents chose Dr. Milton Cofield of Rochester.

New York now has a second U.S. Senator, or will on Tuesday, when Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand is sworn in to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton.  The selection was made by Governor David Paterson; no other approvals are required.

Ms. Gillibrand currently represents a district that runs along the state’s eastern border, beginning in Dutchess County and running north into Essex County.  She was just elected to a second term this past November. Her name is pronounced “jill-uh-brand.”

She seems well-regarded by people active in education policy and has been visible in schools in her Congressional district.

A New York Times profile describes her as “a 42-year-old lawyer, … to politics born and bred, a relentless campaigner and fund-raiser, a competitive woman whose friends, unprompted, suggest she might someday soon seek the presidency.”  She grew up in a family prominent in Albany politics and once served as an aide to State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo when he served as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Clinton Administration.

Governor Paterson has taken a lot of criticism for his handling of the selection.  One commentator suggested he managed to offend three “royal families” in Democratic politics — the Kennedys, for bypassing Caroline and seeming to mangle the announcement of her withdrawal, the Clintons for considering Caroline after she had endorsed Barack Obama over Hillary during the presidential primary campaign; and the Cuomos for passing over Andrew.

The nature of the process allowed the Governor to make one friend while disappoiting two or six or 20 other men and women who felt they would make a fine U.S. Senator.

Senator Gillibrand would face two statewide elections in two years to retain the seat for a full term.  She would need to run in 2010 to win the right to serve the remaining two years in Hillary Clinton’s term and again in 2012 to win a full six-year term.

There is still no official resolution of the question of which party will exercise control over the State Senate. There is increasing speculation, however, that Democrat Malcolm Smith will prevail, ending more than 40 years of Republican control.  A vote for Majority Leader is scheduled for tomorrow — Wednesday, January 7.

Meanwhile the group that tagged our state has having the “most dysfunctional” state legislative process in the nation, concludes that our legislature is “Still Broken.”  That is the name of a new report by New York University’s Brennan Center for Justice.  Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver vehemently disputes

I’m not sure how one weighs relative dysfunctionality across states, and it sounds like a depressing excerise to pursue.  But from speaking with counterparts with superintendents associations in other states, I conclude that “the grass is not necessarily greener” elsewhere.  Whatever their procedural shortcomings, at least our state legislature chambers are not overtly hostile to public education, as in some states.  Year after year, the legislature has made education funding a priority.  In any event, we don’t have the option of lobbying another state’s legislature.